CHAPTER 89 9.6 Billion1
The world’s population is likely to reach 9.6 billion by 2050 from about 7 billion today, an increase of 38 percent, mostly concentrated in poor nations. Today, up to 1 billion people are so undernourished they can’t do modest manual work. Can the world be fed? That’s the challenge. Food prices reflected the Malthusian vision of population rising too fast to feed itself. Rising consumption of grains is draining global stocks fast and pushing prices to levels that fueled riots four years ago, and widespread discontent more recently. In 2007 and 2008, food prices soared and led some 30 poor nations to deal with food-price-related riots, and Russia started to restrict exports. Again in the summer of 2010, world wheat and rice prices spiked. Riots resumed and Russia once again banned wheat exports. The oil price is at its highest since October 2010, just shy of US$127 per barrel in early April 2011. By end-2010, world food prices were already back at their July 2008 peak. Beginning in mid-2010, world grain prices exploded. Prices rose to an all-time high in February 2011.
High prices were among the triggers of street protests and even revolutions that recently swept North Africa where wheat dominates the region’s diet. Egypt is the world’s biggest importer of wheat. The United Arab Emirates import more than 50 percent of its wheat needs. Despite massive subsidies and price controls, high prices still filtered through to consumers, building a tinderbox for ...