14. Cost and Schedule Evidence Development

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.

—Niels Bohr

The ICSM decision milestones require evidence that the desired capabilities can be developed within the budget and schedules available or planned. This is not an easy task, and evidence must be more than an educated guess or a politically acceptable wink and a nod. Estimation is a broad and deep subject, and there are myriad ways to approach it. In this chapter we provide some fundamental guidance on the type of estimation you might need in various instances, and on strategies for dealing with the inevitable estimation uncertainties.

The two Cones of Uncertainty discussed in Chapter 2 and reproduced as Figure 14-1 illustrate the challenges ...

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