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The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation by Martin Pring

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8Identifying the Stages Using Market Action

Some Background Factors

Identifying Stages by Market Action

Identifying Stages Using the Markets: A Good and Bad Example

The Results

Some Background Factors

Most business cycles experience the six stages, as defined by the chronological sequence of market peaks and troughs, but some do not. Consequently, it should never be assumed that this progression can be mechanically extrapolated in every cycle, for occasionally the expected chronological sequence of actual peaks and troughs will not operate. Alternatively the stages may retrograde as the cycle, for example, moves from Stage III back to Stage II and then back to Stage III again. Stages can also be skipped as the cycle jumps, say from Stage VI ...

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