The Investor's Manifesto: Preparing for Prosperity, Armageddon, and Everything in Between

Notes

Preface

1 Ip, Greg, “The Bull Market May Be on the Ropes, But the Bull Mentality Acts Like a Champ,” Wall Street Journal (Sept. 14, 1998).

Chapter 1: A Brief History of Financial Time

1 Sidney Homer and Richard Sylla, A History of Interest Rates (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2005), 17-54.

2 Roger G. Ibbotson and Gary P. Brinson, Global Investing: The Professional’s Guide to the World Capital Markets (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1993), 149.

3 Homer and Sylla, 119.

4 John Julius Norwich, A History of Venice (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1982), 243-256.

5 James Grant, “Is the Medicine Worse Than the Illness?” Wall Street Journal (December 20, 2008).

Chapter 2: The Nature of the Beast

1 For a good review of this topic, see Elroy Dimson et al., Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns (Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002).

2 Nicholas Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (New York: Random House, 2007).

3 William J. Bernstein and Robert D. Arnott, “The Two-Percent Dilution,” Financial Analysts Journal 59, no. 5 (September-October 2003): 47-55.

4 Data from msci.com.

5 Irving Fisher, The Theory of Interest (New York: Macmillan, 1930), and John B. Williams, The Theory of Investment Value (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1938). Williams usually receives credit for inventing the discounted dividend model, and indeed, he did work out its mathematics in much greater detail than Fisher. But Fisher clearly laid down its basic ...