The Metrics Manifesto

CHAPTER 3Counting on Uncertainty: Preparing for Burndown, Arrival, Wait-Times, and Escape Rates

Probability does not exist.

— Bruno de Finetti

Gamblers, Scientists, and a Theologian

We owe a debt to gamblers and gambling. Or, should I say, to theory-driven cheating.

A dice player by the name of Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré, wanted an edge over the house. He believed his current approach to beating the odds was flawed. He needed help. So, he called in the big guns.

Blaise Pascal, one of history's most famous mathematicians, answered Chevalier de Méré's call. Pascal then pulled in Pierre de Fermat, an equally famous mathematician, and a long-distance correspondence on gambling ensued. The fruit of Pascal's and Fermant's penpalship led to early advancements in modern probability. It also led to a string of additional scholars exploring the intersection of probability and gambling.

Fast forward 100 years. Gambling is still the dominant use case in probability scholarship – until Pierre de Laplace (pictured on the right above) shows up. He broadened the application of probability well beyond games of chance.

It is a subset of Laplace's work (a theory he later abandoned) that set the stage for this chapter. Given the volume of Laplace's total work, the probability theory ...