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The Mystery of Market Movements: An Archetypal Approach to Investment Forecasting and Modelling

Book Description

A quantifiable framework for unlocking the unconscious forces that shape markets

There has long been a notion that subliminal forces play a great part in causing the seemingly irrational financial bubbles, which conventional economic theory, again and again, fails to explain. However, these forces, sometimes labeled 'animal spirits' or 'irrational exuberance, have remained elusive - until now. The Mystery of Market Movements provides you with a methodology to timely predict and profit from changes in human investment behaviour based on the workings of the collective unconscious.

Niklas Hageback draws in on one of psychology's most influential ideas - archetypes - to explain how they form investor's perceptions and can be predicted and turned into profit. The Mystery of Market Movements provides;

  • A review of the collective unconscious and its archetypes based on Carl Jung's theories and empirical case studies that highlights and assesses the influences of the collective unconscious on financial bubbles and zeitgeists

  • For the first time being able to objectively measure the impact of archetypal forces on human thoughts and behaviour with a view to provide early warning signals on major turns in the markets. This is done through a step-by-step guide on how to develop a measurement methodology based on an analysis of the language of the unconscious; figurative speech such as metaphors and symbolism, drawn out and deciphered from Big Data sources, allowing for quantification into time series

  • The book is supplemented with an online resource that presents continuously updated bespoken archetypal indexes with predictive capabilities to major financial indexes

  • Investors are often unaware of the real reasons behind their own financial decisions. This book explains why psychological drivers in the collective unconscious dictates not only investment behaviour but also political, cultural and social trends. Understanding these forces allows you to stay ahead of the curve and profit from market tendencies that more traditional methods completely overlook.

    Table of Contents

    1. Cover
    2. Series Page
    3. Title Page
    4. Copyright
    5. Acknowledgments
    6. Introduction
    7. Chapter 1: Psychology: A Primer
      1. Some Key Psychological Concepts
      2. The Unconscious
      3. Conclusion
      4. Notes
      5. References
    8. Chapter 2: Archetypes and Symbols
      1. Carl Gustav Jung
      2. Archetypes: A Background
      3. Why Do Archetypes Activate?
      4. Symbols: The Tangible Manifestations of Archetypes
      5. Conclusion
      6. Notes
      7. References
    9. Chapter 3: How Archetypes Influence and Impact Behaviour
      1. Characteristics of the Activation of an Archetype
      2. Projections and Other Defense Mechanisms
      3. The Role of Scapegoats
      4. Shadow Projections
      5. Zeitgeist
      6. Mass Hysteria and Panics
      7. Conclusion
      8. Notes
      9. References
    10. Chapter 4: Archetypal Influences in the Financial Markets
      1. Financial Bubbles
      2. Animal Spirits
      3. An Archetypal Perspective on the Development of Financial Bubbles
      4. Conclusion
      5. Notes
      6. References
    11. Chapter 5: Existing Approaches to Capture Sentiments in Financial Markets, and Why They Do Not Work
      1. Behavioural Finance
      2. Technical Analysis
      3. Efficient Market Hypothesis
      4. Black Swans
      5. Social Mood
      6. Emotion Words
      7. Conclusion
      8. Notes
      9. References
    12. Chapter 6: Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces
      1. Linking Symbols to Archetypes
      2. Capturing Symbols
      3. Conclusion
      4. Notes
      5. References
    13. Chapter 7: Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces
      1. Data Sources
      2. Capture and Cleansing
      3. Relativisation of Symbol Words
      4. Two Article Examples
      5. Conclusion
      6. Notes
      7. References
    14. Chapter 8: Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces
      1. Signal Theory
      2. Correlation Testing
      3. Testing the Time Series against Known Cycles
      4. Constructing Archetypal Composite Indexes
      5. Backtesting and Calibration
      6. Conclusion
      7. Notes
      8. References
    15. Chapter 9: Examples of Archetypal Influences on the Formation of Financial Bubbles
      1. The Dot-Com Bubble
      2. The US Property Bubble
      3. Conclusion
      4. Notes
      5. References
    16. Chapter 10: Conclusion
      1. How Archetypes Play Out
      2. Areas for Further Research
      3. Time Constants
      4. Multiple Archetypes
      5. Tipping Points
      6. Subliminal Stimulation
      7. Archetypal Influences in Other Areas
      8. Archetypal Influences in Other Cultures and Languages
      9. Are the Collective Unconscious and Its Archetypes Constraining Free Will?
      10. Influences on Finance
    17. About the Author
    18. Index
    19. End User License Agreement