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The Operational Risk Handbook for Financial Companies: A guide to the new world of performance-oriented operational risk by Brian Barnier

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1.6. Evaluating Scenario Quality and Avoiding Bias

“At my first employer, J.P. Morgan & Co., integrity and discretion were primary values. But two additional refrains were constant: ‘What could go wrong if we do this?’ And, the constant reminder, ‘If you know of something that concerns you, you must surface it up the line.’”

— Karen Osar

‘Are your scenarios realistic?’ ‘Do they avoid bias?’ ‘Are they reliable?’ These are the questions asked by auditors, board members and examiners. Asking—and answering—them helps institutions improve risk management maturity, stress testing and business performance.

Life-like scenarios: checking their pulse

As the workshop output is reviewed, tools can help evaluate the quality of the scenarios. A tool ...

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