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The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra
The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra



for example. Continuous distributions include the normal, normal logarithmic,
triangular, beta, and uniform distributions. Triangular distributions use the
        

distributions use the three-point estimates obtained by calculating the average


values and vertical axes (y) represent the relative probability.
SOURCE: PMBOK® Guide

is technique is the same as discussed in other project management
processes. Experts, inside or outside the organization, can contribute to the

2.5.1.2 Quantitativeriskanalysisandmodelingtechniques
e quantitative analysis techniques and modeling techniques include sensitivity
analyses, expected monetary value, decision tree and modeling, and simulation.


impact on the project, based on the evaluation of uncertainties of their
         




BETA DISTRIBUTION TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
Chapter 11 - Project Risk Management
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The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra
The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra


decisions and expected outcomes according to the selected alternative. It
incorporates the cost of each choice, probabilities of each scenario, and the
         







multiplying the value of each possible result by its occurrence probability.
Positive impact values represent opportunities, and negative values represent


value, representing the need for an increased contingency reserve fund to the
project.
TORNADO DIAGRAM
Equipment cost
Facilities cost
Resource cost
Other costs
Mean value
05101520 2015105 25
Project cost variances
EMV
IMPACTPROBABILITY
RISK
− $2,500
− $10,00025%
RISK A
$1,600$4,00040%RISK B
− $900
TOTAL Expected Monetary Value
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The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra
The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra

ese techniques use several inputs, such as costs or schedule duration, in
order to dene the probability distribution for the selected variable. For
        

  


the method performs.
2.7 RISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES


2.7.1 Strategiesfornegativerisksorthreats












$6,000
$4,000
$4,800
$1,200
INITIAL DECISION
Option A
EV = $10,000
Probability of occurring - 0.6
Probability of not occurring - 0.4
Probability of occurring - 0.8
Probability of not occurring - 0.2
Option B
EV = $6,000
Decision expected value
Chapter 11 - Project Risk Management
565
The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra
The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra


or reducing the impact to an acceptable limit. e use of less complex processes,
prototyping, implementation of a larger amount of tests, and the use of more
reliable and stable suppliers are examples of this technique.
2.7.2 Strategiesforpositiverisksoropportunities




sales and prot gures in order to reduce project time.


opportunity and benet the project. For example, they can be partnerships and


It consists in increasing probabilities or impacts by identifying and maximizing


2.7.3 Acceptance




2.7.4 Contingentresponsestrategies
   

2.7.5 Workarounds
 

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