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for example. Continuous distributions include the normal, normal logarithmic,
triangular, beta, and uniform distributions. Triangular distributions use the
distributions use the three-point estimates obtained by calculating the average
values and vertical axes (y) represent the relative probability.
SOURCE: PMBOK® Guide
is technique is the same as discussed in other project management
processes. Experts, inside or outside the organization, can contribute to the
2.5.1.2 Quantitativeriskanalysisandmodelingtechniques
e quantitative analysis techniques and modeling techniques include sensitivity
analyses, expected monetary value, decision tree and modeling, and simulation.
impact on the project, based on the evaluation of uncertainties of their
BETA DISTRIBUTION TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0

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decisions and expected outcomes according to the selected alternative. It
incorporates the cost of each choice, probabilities of each scenario, and the
multiplying the value of each possible result by its occurrence probability.
Positive impact values represent opportunities, and negative values represent
value, representing the need for an increased contingency reserve fund to the
project.
TORNADO DIAGRAM
Equipment cost
Facilities cost
Resource cost
Other costs
Mean value
05101520 2015105 25
Project cost variances
EMV
IMPACTPROBABILITY
RISK
− $2,500
− $10,00025%
RISK A
$1,600$4,00040%RISK B
− $900
TOTAL Expected Monetary Value

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ese techniques use several inputs, such as costs or schedule duration, in
order to dene the probability distribution for the selected variable. For
the method performs.
2.7 RISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES
2.7.1 Strategiesfornegativerisksorthreats
$6,000
$4,000
$4,800
$1,200
INITIAL DECISION
Option A
EV = $10,000
Probability of occurring - 0.6
Probability of not occurring - 0.4
Probability of occurring - 0.8
Probability of not occurring - 0.2
Option B
EV = $6,000
Decision expected value

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or reducing the impact to an acceptable limit. e use of less complex processes,
prototyping, implementation of a larger amount of tests, and the use of more
reliable and stable suppliers are examples of this technique.
2.7.2 Strategiesforpositiverisksoropportunities
sales and prot gures in order to reduce project time.
opportunity and benet the project. For example, they can be partnerships and
It consists in increasing probabilities or impacts by identifying and maximizing
2.7.3 Acceptance
2.7.4 Contingentresponsestrategies
2.7.5 Workarounds
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