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 





for example. Continuous distributions include the normal, normal logarithmic,

triangular, beta, and uniform distributions. Triangular distributions use the

        



distributions use the three-point estimates obtained by calculating the average





values and vertical axes (y) represent the relative probability.

SOURCE: PMBOK® Guide

 

is technique is the same as discussed in other project management

processes. Experts, inside or outside the organization, can contribute to the



2.5.1.2 Quantitativeriskanalysisandmodelingtechniques

e quantitative analysis techniques and modeling techniques include sensitivity

analyses, expected monetary value, decision tree and modeling, and simulation.

 



impact on the project, based on the evaluation of uncertainties of their

         









BETA DISTRIBUTION TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

Chapter 11 - Project Risk Management

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

decisions and expected outcomes according to the selected alternative. It

incorporates the cost of each choice, probabilities of each scenario, and the

         









 





multiplying the value of each possible result by its occurrence probability.

Positive impact values represent opportunities, and negative values represent





value, representing the need for an increased contingency reserve fund to the

project.

TORNADO DIAGRAM

Equipment cost

Facilities cost

Resource cost

Other costs

Mean value

05101520 2015105 25

Project cost variances

EMV

IMPACTPROBABILITY

RISK

− $2,500

− $10,00025%

RISK A

$1,600$4,00040%RISK B

− $900

TOTAL Expected Monetary Value

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 

ese techniques use several inputs, such as costs or schedule duration, in

order to dene the probability distribution for the selected variable. For

        



  





the method performs.

2.7 RISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES





2.7.1 Strategiesfornegativerisksorthreats



 











 









$6,000

$4,000

$4,800

$1,200

INITIAL DECISION

Option A

EV = $10,000

Probability of occurring - 0.6

Probability of not occurring - 0.4

Probability of occurring - 0.8

Probability of not occurring - 0.2

Option B

EV = $6,000

Decision expected value

Chapter 11 - Project Risk Management

565

The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra

The PMP® Certification Exam Study Guide - Rosaldo de Jesus Nocêra

 



or reducing the impact to an acceptable limit. e use of less complex processes,

prototyping, implementation of a larger amount of tests, and the use of more

reliable and stable suppliers are examples of this technique.

2.7.2 Strategiesforpositiverisksoropportunities



 





sales and prot gures in order to reduce project time.

 



opportunity and benet the project. For example, they can be partnerships and



 

It consists in increasing probabilities or impacts by identifying and maximizing





2.7.3 Acceptance









2.7.4 Contingentresponsestrategies

   



2.7.5 Workarounds

 



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