The Red Dream

Appendices

Appendix 1: Estimated China Government–Only Debt Obligations, 2009, 2015–2019

Note	RMB bn	FY09A	FY15A	FY16A	FY17A	2018A	2019A
GDP	33,535	67,671	74,412	82,712	86,989	98,140
Central obligations to GDP	40.9%	39.8%	40.8%	40.6%	42.4%	41.6%
Local obligations to GDP	28.9%	30.5%	35.9%	62.3%	66.2%	73.8%
LGFP/Gov't Guided Funds to GDP	2.7%	18.9%	30.0%	36.9%	42.2%	43.3%
NPL to GDP	8.9%	14.9%	17.4%	20.5%	21.2%	19.6%
Total	79%	85%	94%	123%	130%	135%
A) Central Government Obligations
1	a.Central Government bonds including savings bonds	5,541	10,150	11,468	12,901	14,361	16,105
2	b. MOF special bonds, receivables and AMC bonds	808	700	796	791	786	802
3	c. MOF assumed local government debt	200	0	0	0	0	0
4	d. CIC MOF 1998 + 2007 Special Bonds	1,820	1,820	1,820	1,820	1,820	1,820
5	e. Policy Bank bonds	4,450	10,996	12,395	13,454	14,517	15,725
6	h. Ministry of Railways/Huijin	396	1,233	1,341	1,480	1,615	1,673
7	i. Big 4 Bank bonds	486	2,009	2,522	3,143	3,806	4,696
Sub-total: Central Obligations	13,701	26,908	30,345	33,589	36,905	40,821
B) Local Government Obligations
8	a. Outstanding local debt less bonds	7,800	10,301	5,993	3,754	1,283	1,703
9	b. Net out 50% CDB policy bank bond o/s	-1,600	-3,300	-3,541	-3,770	-4,074	-4,352
10	c. Local government bonds	-200	4,456	9,363	12,756	15,327	21,118
11	d. LGFP/Gov't Guided Funds	NA	12,771	22,320	30,557	36,750	42,502
12	d. Local contingent obligations = ...