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The UK Stock Market Almanac 2016: Seasonality analysis and studies of market anomalies to give you an edge in the year ahead by Stephen Eckett

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Budget day

How do the markets behave on the days around Budget day?

The UK Budget used to be in April, after the start of the fiscal year, but these days it is in March, before the end of the fiscal year. The Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to give his Budget to Parliament next week, on the 23rd.

Equities

The following chart shows the daily returns since 2005 for the FTSE 100 for the three days around Budget day:

  1. B(-1): the day before the Budget
  2. B(0): Budget day
  3. B(+1): the day after the Budget

For example, in 2005 the Budget was on 16 March, the day before the Budget the FTSE 100 rose 0.5%, on Budget day the index fell 1.3%, and on the day after the index fell 0.3%.

Equities, currencies, gilts

The following chart shows the average ...

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