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The UK Stock Market Almanac 2016: Seasonality analysis and studies of market anomalies to give you an edge in the year ahead by Stephen Eckett

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April market

Market performance this month

Five years ago, April was the strongest month for the market in the year, but it now ranks second behind December. The two have been switching first and second places for some time – it is odd how the performance of the market in these months tracks so closely.

On average, the market rises 1.8% in this month and the probability of a positive return is 71%. Since 2003 the market has only fallen three times in April. However, this doesn’t match the earlier performance: from 1971 the market rose in April every year for 15 years – a recent record for any month.

This is the strongest month for the FTSE 100 relative to the S&P 500 (in sterling terms); the former outperforms the latter by an average of 1.3 ...

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