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The UK Stock Market Almanac 2016: Seasonality analysis and studies of market anomalies to give you an edge in the year ahead by Stephen Eckett

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June market

Market performance this month

This is not a good period for investors – the weak month of May is followed by the even weaker month of June. On average the market has fallen 1.0% in June; and the probability of a positive return in the month is a lowly 38% – which ranks it 11th of all months in the year.

Since year 2000 the situation has been even worse: the average return in the month has been -2.0%; the market has only risen one June in the past nine years. And, as can be seen in the accompanying chart, the market falls in June can be quite large; the market has fallen over 3% in June in eight years since 1982.

In an average June the market starts strong, hitting its month high on the second or third trading day, but prices then ...

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