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The UK Stock Market Almanac 2016: Seasonality analysis and studies of market anomalies to give you an edge in the year ahead by Stephen Eckett

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UK market and the US election cycle

The chart below shows the four-year US presidential cycle superimposed on the FTSE All-Share index from 1956. The vertical bars indicate the timing of the November elections every four years.

It can be seen that on occasions the US presidential election has (approximately) coincided with significant turning points in the UK market; notably those elections in 1960, 1968, 1972, 1976, 2000 and 2008.

US election results

The table below shows the presidential election results since 1948.

Election date

Elected president

Party

Popular vote (%)

Electoral vote

02 Nov 1948

Harry Truman ...

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