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The UK Stock Market Almanac 2016: Seasonality analysis and studies of market anomalies to give you an edge in the year ahead by Stephen Eckett

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July market

Market performance this month

July ranks fourth of all months for performance: on average the market increases 1.0% in July, with a probability of a positive return of 56%. So, after a usually disappointing May and June, shares tend to perform a bit better this month.

July is one of only three months (the others being September and October) where the FTSE 100 tends to outperform the mid-cap FTSE 250, although the outperformance in July is not significantly large. Better is the performance of the FTSE 100 relative to the S&P 500 – in sterling terms July is the second best month for the FTSE 100 (outperforming by an average 1.0% percentage points since 1984).

As can be seen in the accompanying chart, the start of the month tends to ...

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