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The UK Stock Market Almanac 2016: Seasonality analysis and studies of market anomalies to give you an edge in the year ahead by Stephen Eckett

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August market

Market performance this month

Not surprisingly, perhaps, during the low-volume summer doldrums, the performance of shares in August is very similar to that in July. Five years ago August was ranked the 5th best month in the year, but now it has slipped to 7th. The average return in the month is 0.5%, while the probability of a positive return in August is 58%. As can be seen in the accompanying chart, there have been some nasty falls in August – most recently in 1998 and 2011.

Internationally, August is not a good month for equities; it has the second lowest average monthly returns for 70 world equity markets. In domestic currency terms, August is the strongest month of the year for the FTSE 100 relative to the S&P 500, but after ...

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