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The UK Stock Market Almanac 2016: Seasonality analysis and studies of market anomalies to give you an edge in the year ahead by Stephen Eckett

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US election portfolios

The chart below shows the performance of the UK market (FTSE All-Share index) over the periods the respective US presidents were in office.

From the point of view of the UK market, the best president was Jimmy Carter – the market rose 145% during his four years as president. The worst spell was the second term of Richard Nixon, when the market fell 42%.

The chart below plots the values of two portfolios (indexed to 100):

  • Democrat portfolio: only invests in the UK when there is a Democrat in the White House, and is in cash when the president is a Republican.
  • Republican portfolio: reverse of the above.

The two ...

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