September – the worst month of the year for shares! After the summer lull, things can get exciting again for investors in September. Since 1982, the FTSE All-Share index has on average fallen 1.0% in this month – the worst average return of any month in the year. And things haven’t improved recently: since 2000 the average return in September has been even worse at -1.9%. The probability of a positive return in September is 45%.
In an average September, the market tends to gently drift lower for the first three weeks before rebounding slightly in the final week – although the final trading day (FTD) has historically been one of the weakest FTDs of all months in the year.
But, however bad the month ...