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The UK Stock Market Almanac 2016: Seasonality analysis and studies of market anomalies to give you an edge in the year ahead by Stephen Eckett

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September market

Market performance this month

September – the worst month of the year for shares! After the summer lull, things can get exciting again for investors in September. Since 1982, the FTSE All-Share index has on average fallen 1.0% in this month – the worst average return of any month in the year. And things haven’t improved recently: since 2000 the average return in September has been even worse at -1.9%. The probability of a positive return in September is 45%.

In an average September, the market tends to gently drift lower for the first three weeks before rebounding slightly in the final week – although the final trading day (FTD) has historically been one of the weakest FTDs of all months in the year.

But, however bad the month ...

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