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The UK Stock Market Almanac 2016: Seasonality analysis and studies of market anomalies to give you an edge in the year ahead by Stephen Eckett

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January market

Market performance this month

From 1984 to 1999, January was easily the strongest month of the year, but the dot-com crash seems to have knocked the stuffing out of it. Since 2000, January has been the second weakest month of the year, with an average return in the month of -1.9%. For the period since 1984, January has a ranking of 8th among months.

As can be seen from the average January chart below, historically the euphoria of December (the strongest month of the year) carries over into the first few days of January as the market continues to climb for the first couple of days. But by around the fourth trading day the exhilaration is wearing off and the market then falls for the next two weeks – the second week of January has ...

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