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Thinking Backwards by Martin Scheepbouwer, Rob Van Haastrecht

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CHAPTER 3

Conducting Analyses: Going beyond Reasonable Doubt

The business case for the new theme park Fairy Island was very positive. The park would make double-digit profitability and investors would have to be stupid not to get on board. The project team had worked very hard on the business case. The costs were benchmarked against five comparable parks and the investment was based on the high-level price bid of a developer plus a safety margin of 10 per cent. The revenue was based on a very extensive market analysis. The team had developed a market model using the statistics of theme park visits over the past twenty years, segmented by family size, nationality, seasonality and average spending. The conclusion was that the market was rather ...

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