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Trade-off Analytics

Book Description

Presents information to create a trade-off analysis framework for use in government and commercial acquisition environments

This book presents a decision management process based on decision theory and cost analysis best practices aligned with the ISO/IEC 15288, the Systems Engineering Handbook, and the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge. It provides a sound trade-off analysis framework to generate the tradespace and evaluate value and risk to support system decision-making throughout the life cycle. Trade-off analysis and risk analysis techniques are examined. The authors present an integrated value trade-off and risk analysis framework based on decision theory. These trade-off analysis concepts are illustrated in the different life cycle stages using multiple examples from defense and commercial domains.

  • Provides techniques to identify and structure stakeholder objectives and creative, doable alternatives
  • Presents the advantages and disadvantages of tradespace creation and exploration techniques for trade-off analysis of concepts, architectures, design, operations, and retirement
  • Covers the sources of uncertainty in the system life cycle and examines how to identify, assess, and model uncertainty using probability
  • Illustrates how to perform a trade-off analysis using the INCOSE Decision Management Process using both deterministic and probabilistic techniques 

Trade-off Analytics:  Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace is written for upper undergraduate students and graduate students studying systems design, systems engineering, industrial engineering and engineering management. This book also serves as a resource for practicing systems designers, systems engineers, project managers, and engineering managers.


Gregory S. Parnell, PhD,
is a Research Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas. He is also a senior principal with Innovative Decisions, Inc., a decision and risk analysis firm and has served as Chairman of the Board. Dr. Parnell has published more than 100 papers and book chapters and was lead editor of Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering (2nd Ed, Wiley 2011) and lead author of the Handbook of Decision Analysis (Wiley 2013).  He is a fellow of INFORMS, the INCOSE, MORS, and the Society for Decision Professionals.

Table of Contents

  1. Title Page
  2. Copyright
  3. Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management
  4. List of Contributors
  5. About the Authors
  6. Foreword
  7. Preface
    1. Need for More Effective Trade Studies
    2. Audience
    3. Themes
    4. Book Organization
    5. Course Outlines Using the Textbook
    6. Notional Course Objectives
    7. Illustrative Academic Course Outlines
    8. Illustrative Professional Short Course Outline
    9. Reference
  8. Acknowledgments
    1. International Council on Systems Engineering (Incose) Corporate Advisory Board (CAB)
    2. Incose Technical Directors
    3. Incose Decision Analysis Working Group
    4. Chapter Authors
    5. Chapter Reviewers
    6. Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas
    7. Research Assistant
    8. Final Note
  9. About the Companion Website
  10. Chapter 1: Introduction to Trade-Off Analysis
    1. 1.1 Introduction
    2. 1.2 Trade-off Analyses Throughout the Life Cycle
    3. 1.3 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Value
    4. 1.4 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Uncertainties and Risks
    5. 1.5 Trade-off Analyses can Integrate Value and Risk Analysis
    6. 1.6 Trade-off Analysis in the Systems Engineering Decision Management Process
    7. 1.7 Trade-off Analysis Mistakes of Omission and Commission
    8. 1.8 Overview of the Book
    9. 1.9 Key Terms
    10. 1.10 Exercises
    11. References
  11. Chapter 2: A Conceptual Framework and Mathematical Foundation for Trade-Off Analysis
    1. 2.1 Introduction
    2. 2.2 Trade-Off Analysis Terms
    3. 2.3 Influence Diagram of the Tradespace
    4. 2.4 Tradespace Exploration
    5. 2.5 Summary
    6. 2.6 Key Words
    7. 2.7 Exercises
    8. References
  12. Chapter 3: Quantifying Uncertainty
    1. 3.1 Sources of Uncertainty in Systems Engineering
    2. 3.2 The Rules of Probability and Human Intuition
    3. 3.3 Probability Distributions
    4. 3.4 Estimating Probabilities
    5. 3.5 Modeling Using Probability
    6. 3.6 Summary
    7. 3.7 Key Terms
    8. 3.8 Exercises
    9. References
  13. Chapter 4: Analyzing Resources
    1. 4.1 Introduction
    2. 4.2 Resources
    3. 4.3 Cost Analysis
    4. 4.4 Affordability Analysis
    5. 4.5 Key Terms
    6. 4.6 Excercises
    7. References
  14. Chapter 5: Understanding Decision Management
    1. 5.1 Introduction1
    2. 5.2 Decision Process Context
    3. 5.3 Decision Process Activities
    4. 5.4 Summary
    5. 5.5 Key Terms
    6. 5.6 Exercises
    7. References
  15. Chapter 6: Identifying Opportunities
    1. 6.1 Introduction
    2. 6.2 Knowledge
    3. 6.3 Decision Traps
    4. 6.4 Techniques
    5. 6.5 Tools
    6. 6.6 Illustrative Examples
    7. 6.7 Key Terms
    8. 6.8 Exercises
    9. References
  16. Chapter 7: Identifying Objectives and Value Measures
    1. 7.1 Introduction
    2. 7.2 Value-Focused Thinking
    3. 7.3 Shareholder and Stakeholder Value
    4. 7.4 Challenges in Identifying Objectives
    5. 7.5 Identifying the Decision Objectives
    6. 7.6 The Financial or Cost Objective
    7. 7.7 Developing Value Measures
    8. 7.8 Structuring Multiple Objectives
    9. 7.9 Illustrative Examples
    10. 7.10 Summary
    11. 7.11 Key Terms
    12. 7.12 Exercises
    13. References
  17. Chapter 8: Developing and Evaluating Alternatives
    1. 8.1 Introduction
    2. 8.2 Overview of Decision-making, Creativity, and Teams
    3. 8.3 Alternative Development Techniques
    4. 8.4 Assessment of Alternative Development Techniques
    5. 8.5 Alternative Evaluation Techniques
    6. 8.6 Assessment of Alternative Evaluation Techniques
    7. 8.7 Key Terms
    8. 8.8 Exercises
    9. References
  18. Chapter 9: An Integrated Model for Trade-Off Analysis
    1. 9.1 Introduction
    2. 9.2 Conceptual Design Example
    3. 9.3 Integrated Approach Influence Diagram
    4. 9.4 Other Types of Trade-Off Analysis
    5. 9.5 Simulation Tools
    6. 9.6 Summary
    7. 9.7 Key Terms
    8. 9.8 Exercises
    9. References
  19. Chapter 10: Exploring Concept Trade-Offs
    1. 10.1 Introduction
    2. 10.2 Defining the Concept Space and System Concept of Operations
    3. 10.3 Exploring the Concept Space
    4. 10.4 Trade-off Analysis Frameworks
    5. 10.5 Tradespace and System Design Life Cycle
    6. 10.6 From Point Trade-offs to Tradespace Exploration
    7. 10.7 Value-based Multiattribute TRADESPACE ANALYSIS
    8. 10.8 Illustrative Example
    9. 10.9 Conclusions
    10. 10.10 Key Terms
    11. 10.11 Exercises
    12. References
  20. Chapter 11: Architecture Evaluation Framework
    1. 11.1 Introduction
    2. 11.2 Key Considerations in Evaluating Architectures
    3. 11.3 Architecture Evaluation Elements
    4. 11.4 Steps in an Architecture Evaluation Process
    5. 11.5 Example Evaluation Taxonomy
    6. 11.6 Summary
    7. 11.7 Key Terms
    8. 11.8 Exercises
    9. References
  21. Chapter 12: Exploring the Design Space
    1. 12.1 Introduction
    2. 12.2 Example 1: Liftboat
    3. 12.3 Example 2: Cruise Ship Design
    4. 12.4 Example 3: NATO Naval Surface Combatant Ship
    5. 12.5 Key Terms
    6. 12.6 Exercises
    7. References
  22. Chapter 13: Sustainment Related Models and Trade Studies
    1. 13.1 Introduction
    2. 13.2 Availability Modeling and Trade Studies
    3. 13.3 Sustainment Life Cycle Cost Modeling and Trade Studies14
    4. 13.4 Optimization in Availability Trade Studies
    5. 13.5 Monte Carlo Modeling
    6. 13.6 Chapter Summary
    7. 13.7 Key Terms
    8. 13.8 Exercises
    9. References
  23. Chapter 14: Performing Programmatic Trade-Off Analyses
    1. 14.1 Introduction
    2. 14.2 System Acceptance Decisions and Trade Studies
    3. 14.3 Product Cancelation Decision Trade Study
    4. 14.4 Product Retirement Decision Trade Study
    5. 14.5 Key Terms
    6. 14.6 Exercises
    7. References
  24. Chapter 15: Summary and Future Trends
    1. 15.1 Introduction
    2. 15.2 Major Trade-Off Analysis Themes
    3. 15.3 Future of Trade-Off Analysis
    4. 15.4 Summary
    5. References
  25. Index
  26. End User License Agreement