Chapter 7

STEP 3—EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITIES

The evaluation of the relative likelihood of different future scenarios is something we all do almost every day, and many of us have to do it in our jobs. However, most of the time we are not aware that we are doing it, or we do it based on our seemingly incurable hardwired tendency pointed out by many researchers (like Kahneman and Tversky) that makes us seek out patterns and see intentionality in the occurrence of events, most often on the basis of statistically insignificant or highly biased “samples” of past experience.19 What is important about this step in the Present Value process is that you try and free yourself from that inclination and think hard about what is measurable, what is not, and ...

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