Tim O’Reilly, Reid Hoffman, and James Manyika discuss the struggles of forecasting the 21st-century economy.
Quotes from James
Britain took 154 years to double economic output per person, and it did so with a population (at the start) of nine million people. The United States achieved the same feat in 53 years, with a population (at the start) of ten million people. China and India have done it in only twelve and sixteen years, respectively, each with about 100 times as many people. In other words, this economic acceleration is roughly 10 times faster than the one triggered by Britain's Industrial Revolution and is 300 times the scale.
If much of the intuition you have built up over your life is wrong—or, at least, seriously questionable—how should you go about managing your investments, your career, and your business?
[A] key to survival is to embed curiosity and learning in an organization.
The twenty-first century corporation does not function like a nineteenth-century military unit. Rather, people tend to respond to the actions and inspiration of peers, competitors, and colleagues. We rethink what is possible and desirable based more on what we see and less on what we are told.
All leaders will have to resist the temptation to focus on the hazards of the period ahead instead of the opportunities it presents. Looking around the world today, there is ample reason for pessimism, especially when it comes to geopolitics. Living through a searing experience like the financial crisis of 2008 or high youth unemployment can leave significant scar tissue. But while pessimists have surely had their share of days in recent years, it's important to note that the long-term trend of so many indicators points up and to the right. In 1930, as the Great Depression spread around the world, the great British economist John Maynard Keynes boldly predicted that, one hundred years on, progressive countries' standard of living would be between four and eight times higher than it was at the time. Despite the Great Depression, an enormously destructive world war, and the Cold War, the higher end of his optimistic expectation has turned out to be our reality today.