Stumbling On Wins in Football: Two Economists Expose the Pitfalls on the Road to Victory in Professional Sports
by David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt
Overview
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Why NFL general managers keep making so many mistakes: the shocking realities hidden in the statistics!
How many wins a quarterback produces depends on two factors: his number of plays and per-play productivity. High draft position gets him on the field, but doesn’t appear to say anything about how well he’ll play. Per-play numbers reveal that players taken with picks 11-50 were more productive than those taken at the top; QBs taken from picks 51-90 were as productive as those in the top ten.
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