Chapter 5. Chance, Coincidence, or Causation—Who Cares?

For centuries, lawyers have found themselves in the prediction business. Their predictions range from the respective likelihood of success for different litigation strategies, to the chances that a jury will find their client credible (or at least more sympathetic than the other party), to the outcome in the appellate courts of a legal matter of first impression. Like lawyers, forensic experts have also been encouraged by their clients and principals to predict the future or to assign probabilities as to how complex technical systems may have behaved in the past.

Americans are in love with scientific explanations for everyday occurrences. Unfortunately, those things that are accepted as scientific ...

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