Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems

Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems

by Cesar Ariel Pinto, Paul R. Garvey
Released April 2016
Publisher(s): CRC Press
ISBN: 9781000755657

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Book description

Focusing on the modeling, analysis, and management of risk in today's complex engineering enterprise systems, this book provides advanced methods for tackling risk problems at the enterprise level. The text presents a risk analytical framework for engineering enterprise systems and covers capability portfolio risk management, functional dependency network analysis, and extreme-event theory. It also discusses prioritization systems in highly networked enterprise environments and examines how to measure risks of extreme latencies in complex queuing networks.

Table of contents

  1. Cover
  2. Half Title
  3. Title Page
  4. Copyright Page
  5. Dedication
  6. Table of Contents
  7. Preface
  8. Acknowledgments
  9. Authors
  10. 1. Engineering Risk Management
    1. 1.1 Introduction
      1. 1.1.1 Boston’s Central Artery/Tunnel Project
    2. 1.2 Objectives and Practices
    3. 1.3 New Challenges
    4. Questions and Exercises
  11. 2. Perspectives on Theories of Systems and Risk
    1. 2.1 Introduction
    2. 2.2 General Systems Theory
      1. 2.2.1 Complex Systems, Systems-of-Systems, and Enterprise Systems
    3. 2.3 Risk and Decision Theory
    4. 2.4 Engineering Risk Management
    5. Questions and Exercises
  12. 3. Foundations of Risk and Decision Theory
    1. 3.1 Introduction
    2. 3.2 Elements of Probability Theory
    3. 3.3 The Value Function
    4. 3.4 Risk and Utility Functions
      1. 3.4.1 vNM Utility Theory
      2. 3.4.2 Utility Functions
    5. 3.5 Multiattribute Utility—The Power Additive Utility Function
      1. 3.5.1 The Power-Additive Utility Function
      2. 3.5.2 Applying the Power-Additive Utility Function
    6. 3.6 Applications to Engineering Risk Management
      1. 3.6.1 Value Theory to Measure Risk
      2. 3.6.2 Utility Theory to Compare Designs
    7. Questions and Exercises
  13. 4. A Risk Analysis Framework in Engineering Enterprise Systems
    1. 4.1 Introduction
    2. 4.2 Perspectives on Engineering Enterprise Systems
    3. 4.3 A Framework for Measuring Enterprise Capability Risk
    4. 4.4 A Risk Analysis Algebra
    5. 4.5 Information Needs for Portfolio Risk Analysis
    6. 4.6 The “Cutting Edge”
    7. Questions and Exercises
  14. 5. An Index to Measure Risk Correlationships
    1. 5.1 Introduction
    2. 5.2 RCR Postulates, Definitions, and Theory
    3. 5.3 Computing the RCR Index
    4. 5.4 Applying the RCR Index: A Resource Allocation Example
    5. 5.5 Summary
    6. Questions and Exercises
  15. 6. Functional Dependency Network Analysis
    1. 6.1 Introduction
    2. 6.2 FDNA Fundamentals
    3. 6.3 Weakest Link Formulations
    4. 6.4 FDNA (α, β) Weakest Link Rule
    5. 6.5 Network Operability and Tolerance Analyses
      1. 6.5.1 Critical Node Analysis and Degradation Index
      2. 6.5.2 Degradation Tolerance Level
    6. 6.6 Special Topics
      1. 6.6.1 Operability Function Regulation
      2. 6.6.2 Constituent Nodes
      3. 6.6.3 Addressing Cycle Dependencies
    7. 6.7 Summary
    8. Questions and Exercises
  16. 7. A Decision-Theoretic Algorithm for Ranking Risk Criticality
    1. 7.1 Introduction
    2. 7.2 A Prioritization Algorithm
      1. 7.2.1 Linear Additive Model
      2. 7.2.2 Compromise Models
      3. 7.2.3 Criteria Weights
      4. 7.2.4 Illustration
    3. Questions and Exercises
  17. 8. A Model for Measuring Risk in Engineering Enterprise Systems
    1. 8.1 A Unifying Risk Analytic Framework and Process
      1. 8.1.1 A Traditional Process with Nontraditional Methods
      2. 8.1.2 A Model Formulation for Measuring Risk in Engineering Enterprise Systems
    2. 8.2 Summary
    3. Questions and Exercises
  18. 9. Random Processes and Queuing Theory
    1. 9.1 Introduction
    2. 9.2 Deterministic Process
      1. 9.2.1 Mathematical Determinism
      2. 9.2.2 Philosophical Determinism
    3. 9.3 Random Process
      1. 9.3.1 Concept of Uncertainty
      2. 9.3.2 Uncertainty, Randomness, and Probability
      3. 9.3.3 Causality and Uncertainty
      4. 9.3.4 Necessary and Sufficient Causes
      5. 9.3.5 Causalities and Risk Scenario Identification
      6. 9.3.6 Probabilistic Causation
    4. 9.4 Markov Process
      1. 9.4.1 Birth and Death Process
    5. 9.5 Queuing Theory
      1. 9.5.1 Characteristic of Queuing Systems
      2. 9.5.2 Poisson Process and Distribution
      3. 9.5.3 Exponential Distribution
    6. 9.6 Basic Queuing Models
      1. 9.6.1 Single-Server Model
      2. 9.6.2 Probability of an Empty Queuing System
      3. 9.6.3 Probability That There Are Exactly N Entities Inside the Queuing System
      4. 9.6.4 Mean Number of Entities in the Queuing System
      5. 9.6.5 Mean Number of Waiting Entities
      6. 9.6.6 Average Latency Time of Entities
      7. 9.6.7 Average Time of an Entity Waiting to Be Served
    7. 9.7 Applications to Engineering Systems
    8. 9.8 Summary
    9. Questions and Exercises
  19. 10. Extreme Event Theory
    1. 10.1 Introduction to Extreme and Rare Events
    2. 10.2 Extreme and Rare Events and Engineering Systems
    3. 10.3 Traditional Data Analysis
    4. 10.4 Extreme Value Analysis
    5. 10.5 Extreme Event Probability Distributions
      1. 10.5.1 Independent Single-Order Statistic
    6. 10.6 Limit Distributions
    7. 10.7 Determining Domain of Attraction Using Inverse Function
    8. 10.8 Determining Domain of Attraction Using Graphical Method
      1. 10.8.1 Steps in Visual Analysis of Empirical Data
      2. 10.8.2 Estimating Parameters of GEVD
    9. 10.9 Complex Systems and Extreme and Rare Events
      1. 10.9.1 Extreme and Rare Events in a Complex System
      2. 10.9.2 Complexity and Causality
      3. 10.9.3 Complexity and Correlation
      4. 10.9.4 Final Words on Causation
    10. 10.10 Summary
    11. Questions and Exercises
  20. 11. Prioritization Systems in Highly Networked Environments
    1. 11.1 Introduction
    2. 11.2 Priority Systems
      1. 11.2.1 PS Notation
    3. 11.3 Types of Priority Systems
      1. 11.3.1 Static Priority Systems
      2. 11.3.2 Dynamic Priority Systems
      3. 11.3.3 State-Dependent DPS
      4. 11.3.4 Time-Dependent DPS
    4. 11.4 Summary
    5. Questions and Exercises
    6. Questions
  21. 12. Risks of Extreme Events in Complex Queuing Systems
    1. 12.1 Introduction
    2. 12.2 Risk of Extreme Latency
      1. 12.2.1 Methodology for Measurement of Risk
    3. 12.3 Conditions for Unbounded Latency
      1. 12.3.1 Saturated PS
    4. 12.4 Conditions for Bounded Latency
      1. 12.4.1 Bounded Latency Times in Saturated Static PS
      2. 12.4.2 Bounded Latency Times in a Saturated SDPS
      3. 12.4.3 Combinations of Gumbel Types
    5. 12.5 Derived Performance Measures
      1. 12.5.1 Tolerance Level for Risk
      2. 12.5.2 Degree of Deficit
      3. 12.5.3 Relative Risks
      4. 12.5.4 Differentiation Tolerance Level
      5. 12.5.5 Cost Functions
    6. 12.6 Optimization of PS
      1. 12.6.1 Cost Function Minimization
      2. 12.6.2 Bounds on Waiting Line
      3. 12.6.3 Pessimistic and Optimistic Decisions in Extremes
    7. 12.7 Summary
    8. Questions and Exercises
  22. Appendix Bernoulli Utility and the St. Petersburg Paradox
    1. A.1.1 The St. Petersburg Paradox
    2. A.1.2 Use Expected Utility, Not Expected Value
    3. Questions and Exercises
  23. References

Product information

  • Title: Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems
  • Author(s): Cesar Ariel Pinto, Paul R. Garvey
  • Release date: April 2016
  • Publisher(s): CRC Press
  • ISBN: 9781000755657