Ahead of the Curve

APPENDIX B

Does Charting Economic Cause and Effect Work Outside the United States?

Throughout this book, I have applied a commonsense, cause-and-effect charting methodology to the tracking of successive stages in the surprisingly consistent chronology of U.S. economic cycles. This approach was an outgrowth and an integral part of my efforts as an analyst on Wall Street to see around economic corners in predicting uptrends and downtrends in the retailing industry and other sectors of the U.S. economy. Over several decades, I have often been asked whether the consistency in the U.S. economy as reflected in our charts also pertains to foreign economies.

For perspective on the sizes of the other major economies in the world relative to that of the ...