Any Happy Returns

Chapter 12The Post‐Modern Cycle: Opportunities in the ‘Old Economy’

Globally, the need for infrastructure investment is forecast to reach $94 trillion by 2040, and a further $3.5 trillion will be required to meet the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals for electricity and water.

—Global Infrastructure Hub

Each era has its unique problems and, in many cases, opportunities. As we enter the Post‐Modern Cycle, humanity faces a series of major challenges. Changing geopolitical alliances, the future of work, ageing populations and the environment are likely to be prominent issues for the foreseeable future.

From an investment perspective, the end goal looks exciting. A successful transition to a zero‐carbon world would not only generate significant improvements in health but, clearly, would hold the prospect of marginal units of energy to be consumed at close to zero cost (both financially and in terms of the planet's resources). The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global energy demand will be 8% lower in 2050 than today, despite the expectation that the global economy will be twice as large and the world's population boosted by 2 billion. The combination of more efficient use of energy, improved resource efficiency and behavioural changes should help offset increases in energy demand. Equally, although the ascent of artificial intelligence (AI) may be daunting and highly disruptive, it offers the potential for higher productivity and significant advances ...