Applied Modeling Techniques and Data Analysis 2

7Estimating the Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) in the Far Past: The Case of Sweden (1751-2016) with Forecasts to 2060

Healthy life expectancy (HLE) estimates are achieved after systematic work done by a large group of researchers all over the world over the last few decades. The most successful estimate was termed as HALE and is provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) on their related website. Having established a methodology of data collection and handling, the HLE can be estimated and provided for researchers and policy makers.

However, there remains an unexplored period over the last few centuries where LE (life expectancy) data exists along with the appropriate life tables, but not enough information for HLE estimates is collected and stored. The problem has now been solved following a methodology of estimating the HLE from the life tables after the healthy life years lost (HLYL) estimation.

Our methodology on a Direct HLYL estimation from life tables is tested and verified via a series of additional methods including a Weibull parameter test, a Gompertz parameter alternative and of course a comparison with HALE estimates from the WHO.

7.1. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy estimates

The full life tables are used to estimate not only the LE but also the HLE, based on an existing methodology (Skiadas and Skiadas 2020a).

Based on the data series from 1900 to 2016 for males and females in Sweden, estimates until 2016 and forecasts to 2060 are done. The logistic ...