Chapter 5. Using Expert Judgment for Risk Assessment
Christian E.H. Beaudrie, Milind Kandlikar and Gurumurthy Ramachandran

Chapter Outline

5.1 Uncertainties in Risk Assessment110
5.1.1 Challenges and Uncertainty in Data Collection, Extrapolation, and Modeling111
5.2 Limitations of Existing Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Precedents for Using Expert Judgment112
5.2.1 Traditional Risk Assessment112
5.2.2 Using Expert Judgment in Risk Assessment114
5.3 Eliciting Expert Judgment – Selection of Experts, Elicitation Protocols and Best Practices115
5.3.1 Expert Performance on Elicitation Tasks115
Calibration and Feedback116
Domain and “Learnability”116
Substantive versus Normative Expertise116
Heuristics and Biases117
5.3.2 Elicitation Methods and Best Practices ...

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