Asset Rotation: The Demise of Modern Portfolio Theory and the Birth of an Investment Renaissance

CHAPTER 2WHEN THE PARADIGM SHIFTSWhy What Worked in the Past May No Longer Work in the Future

Christopher Columbus was a fifteenth-century Italian maritime explorer, commissioned by the Spanish crown to set sail in search of a brave New World. The fruit of his conquests were to bring new riches to Spain through the establishment of trade routes and colonization, in an attempt to gain an upper hand over rival powers in the contest for the lucrative spice trade with Asia.

In 1492, when Christopher Columbus set sail on his first of what would become four round-trip voyages between Spain and the Americas, many believed he and his crew would surely perish, sailing off the edge of the Earth. At the time, prevailing opinions of common folk were that the world was flat.

In the early years of the Renaissance, people still believed the world was flat because it was all they could conceive; by observation it was all that they had ever known and learned to be true. Today, investors follow similarly contrived notions as to how to mitigate risk and generate positive returns in the investment markets. But as we all know, things are not always as they appear. . . .

According to Dictionary.com, a paradigm may be defined as “a framework containing basic assumptions, ways of thinking, and methodology that are commonly accepted by members of a scientific community.” In the confines of the financial services industry, the framework and methodology most heavily relied upon with regard to the management ...