Now that we have learned some of the basic concepts and jargon from probability theory, we can move to the moment everyone was waiting for. Without further ado, let's contemplate, in all its majesty, Bayes' theorem:
Well, it's not that impressive, is it? It looks like an elementary school formula, and yet, paraphrasing Richard Feynman, this is all you need to know about Bayesian statistics.
Learning where Bayes' theorem comes from will help us to understand its meaning.
According to the product rule we have:
This can also be ...