## Book description

Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don’t even understand, meaning they aren’t getting the most from it. *Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way* will change that.

This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid belt, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.

By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you’ll learn real skills, like how to:

•How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief•Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it’s useful for•Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions•Calculate distributions to see the range of your data•Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them

Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to *Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way* to get the most value from your data.

## Table of contents

- Cover Page
- Title Page
- Copyright Page
- Dedication
- About the Author
- About the Technical Reviewer
- Brief Contents
- Contents in Detail
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- Part I: Introduction to Probability
- 1. Bayesian Thinking and Everyday Reasoning
- 2. Measuring Uncertainty
- 3. The Logic of Uncertainty
- 4. Creating a Binomial Probability Distribution
- 5. The Beta Distribution
- Part II: Bayesian Probability and Prior Probabilities
- 6. Conditional Probability
- 7. Bayes’ Theorem with LEGO
- 8. The Prior, Likelihood, and Posterior of Bayes’ Theorem
- 9. Bayesian Priors and Working with Probability Distributions
- Part III: Parameter Estimation
- 10. Introduction to Averaging and Parameter Estimation
- 11. Measuring the Spread of Our Data
- 12. The Normal Distribution
- 13. Tools of Parameter Estimation: The PDF, CDF, and Quantile Function
- 14. Parameter Estimation with Prior Probabilities
- PART IV: Hypothesis Testing: The Heart of Statistics
- 15. From Parameter Estimation to Hypothesis Testing: Building a Bayesian A/B Test
- 16. Introduction to the Bayes Factor and Posterior Odds: The Competition of Ideas
- 17. Bayesian Reasoning in the Twilight Zone
- 18. When Data Doesn’t Convince You
- 19. From Hypothesis Testing to Parameter Estimation
- A. A Quick Introduction to R
- B. Enough Calculus to Get By
- C. Answers to the Exercises
- Index

## Product information

- Title: Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way
- Author(s):
- Release date: July 2019
- Publisher(s): No Starch Press
- ISBN: 9781593279561

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