In this first chapter, I’ll give you an overview of Bayesian reasoning, the formal process we use to update our beliefs about the world once we’ve observed some data. We’ll work through a scenario and explore how we can map our everyday experience to Bayesian reasoning.

The good news is that you were already a Bayesian even before you picked up this book! Bayesian statistics is closely aligned with how people naturally use evidence to create new beliefs and reason about everyday problems; the tricky part is breaking down this natural thought process into a rigorous, mathematical one.

In statistics, we ...

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