18WHEN DATA DOESN’T CONVINCE YOU
In the previous chapter, we used Bayesian reasoning to reason about two hypotheses from an episode of The Twilight Zone:
- H The fortune-telling Mystic Seer is supernatural.
The fortune-telling Mystic Seer isn’t supernatural, just lucky.
We also learned how to account for skepticism by changing the prior odds ratio. For example, if you, like me, believe that the Mystic Seer definitely isn’t psychic, then you might want to set the prior odds extremely low—something like 1/1,000,000.
However, depending on your level ...
Get Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way now with the O’Reilly learning platform.
O’Reilly members experience books, live events, courses curated by job role, and more from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers.
