Chapter 5. Prediction Versus Reaction

Never, never, never try to predict the markets. Most professionals with considerably more timely and accurate information than you cannot predict the markets. You don’t stand a chance. This is difficult to accept. Most people are wired to expect a certain future path and then to follow it. Nothing could be more harmful in the markets. Not only will your prediction likely be wrong, but also your mind will be stuck on that prediction and have difficulty accepting that it may be wrong. Behavioral finance students have long known that people get fixated on numbers and tend to focus on those numbers in their expectations, even when the numbers are totally unrealistic. Don’t make predictions.

Economists

Economists ...

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