Becoming a Data Head

CHAPTER 3Prepare to Think Statistically

“Statistical thinking is a different way of thinking that is part detective, skeptical, and involves alternate takes on a problem.”¹

—Frank Harrell, statistician and professor

This chapter is about how you think about data—about arming yourself with a mindset to consume and think critically about data you come across in your business or everyday life. It's laying important groundwork for the rest of the book, yes, but if any of these concepts are new to you, you'll likely find yourself watching the news or reading the latest popular press science articles through a new lens—a statistical lens.

Two important callouts before we start.

First, we're just scratching the surface here. This one chapter isn't going to replace a semester of Statistics (with apologies to any students) or dive into all the psychological aspects of “thinking” like the modern classic Thinking, Fast and Slow.² But we will introduce several concepts and establish a foundation for statistical thinking, incomplete as it may be.

Second, there is a risk in reading these next few chapters that you will become cynical about data. You might throw your arms up, claiming this statistics nonsense obfuscates the truth under complicated equations and numbers, and swear off any analysis you see. Or maybe you'll throw tomatoes at every article you read because you learned a few tricks of the statistical trade and doubt they know as much as you.

Please don't. Our goal isn't to make ...