CHAPTER 3

Probability

How Bad Statistics Can Put You in Jail

To appreciate statistical analysis it is necessary to have some ­understanding of probability. Surprisingly, perhaps, not very much is required. Knowing how several different probabilities work together in combination and how the probability of occurrence of an event is affected by an overriding condition are all that are needed for most purposes.

Probability Defined

Because of the uncertainties discussed in the preceding chapter, statistical results are quoted together with an indication of the probability of the results being correct. Thus it is necessary to have an understanding of basic probability, which fortunately is not difficult to achieve. Probability is defined as the ratio ...

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