Building Moonshots

WAY 15Trust That the Future Is Not Zero‐Sum: Knowing that multiple solutions will succeed means you can't be limited by today's rules.

About the Way

Although the past is already written, as the saying goes, the future is constantly unfolding. In every industry and on every continent, the “next new thing” or even what's “new and improved” is being pursued by a wide array of contenders. Each of these groups believes that it will be the winner, taking home all the plaudits. This view is traditionally a “winner‐take‐all” approach, which means that one player wins, and all others lose. A quick example of a zero‐sum game is tennis: when the winner gains 1, the loser loses 1, so the sum totals 0. This type of thinking perceives all situations as zero‐sum games, where one person's gain is another's loss, which is embodied in models of resource scarcity and the classic prisoner's dilemma. This zero‐sum belief is widespread in business, commerce, politics, life, and movies—and can make for fun entertainment (The Highlander series come first to mind: “There can be only one!”).

In truth, this zero‐sum view doesn't reflect the reality of new products, inventions, and notably breakthroughs underway at any given time. As inventor Dean Kamen said once, “In a world of material goods and material exchange, trade is a zero‐sum game. I've got a hunk of gold and you have a watch. If we trade, then I have a watch and you have a hunk of gold. But if you have an idea and I have an idea, and we exchange ...