Business Analytics, Volume II

CHAPTER 8

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Chapter Highlights

• •Introduction to Forecasting
• •Forecasting Methods: An Overview

• ○Qualitative Forecasting

• •Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
• •Associative Forecasting
• •Features of Forecasts
• •Elements of a Good Forecast
• •Steps in the Forecasting Process
• •Forecasting Techniques
• •Some Common Patterns of Historical Data
• •Demonstration of Forecasting Errors
• •Measuring Forecast Accuracy
• •Forecasting Methods

• ○Naïve Forecasting Method

• •Forecasting Models Based on Averages
• •Simple Moving Average
• •Illustration of Simple Moving Average Method
• •Calculating and Comparing Forecast Errors
• •Weighted Moving Averages
• •Simple Exponential Smoothing Method
• •Moving Average with a Trend: Double Moving Average—Example ...