Business Plans For Dummies, 3rd Edition

Chapter 13

Confronting Uncertainty

IN THIS CHAPTER

Seeing the dangers of ignoring change

Tracking economic, governmental, cultural, and technological trends

Looking ahead with trend forecasting, scenario planning, and hedging

Assessing the effects of change

Wasn’t it some ancient Greek wise man who said, “Change is the only constant in life”? Wise words indeed. Change defines life. All people expect change. At one time or another, no doubt, you’ve said, “I really need a change.” (Or was it the ex who said that? Never mind.) But you don’t often hear people say that they want a change or like change. People generally prefer stability in their lives. Change makes the future uncertain, and uncertainty makes planning difficult. But you can’t avoid change, so what are you going to do? For starters, keep reading this chapter (and this book) and learn to manage change.

But we must warn that you have the privilege of living in an era of unprecedented economic transition. If you’re one of those who has fresh ideas about market disruptions, that’s good — conditions are favorable. Yet the downside ...