Cash Flow Forecasting

(b) Transfers to households

(c) Transfers to other levels of government

(2) Capital expenditures

(v) Current operating balance (absolute level and relative to

GDP)

(vi) Gross financing requirements (operating balance plus net

capital expenditures)

(1) Trend relative to GDP

(2) Means of financing

(a) Domestic money creation

(b) Domestic borrowing

(c) External borrowing

(vii) Public sector debt: domestic and external

(1) Size (direct and guaranteed)

(2) Debt service requirement

(3) Debt management

(d) External policies

(i) Exchange rate policy

(ii) International reserve management

(iii) Export promotion measures

(iv) Import substitution/trade protectionist measures

(e) Long-term planning and special programs

(i) Energy

(ii) Industrial development/restructuring

(iii) Employment creation

(iv) Others

S&P’s sovereign rating profile

In order to evaluate the elements in the preceding political and eco-

nomic risk profile, the most recent five years of the following informa-

tion should be incorporated.

1. Demographic characteristics

(a) Total population (millions)

(b) Age structure (% of total)

(i) 0–14

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(ii) 15–64

(iii) 66 and over

(c) Urban population (% of total)

(d) Total labour force (millions)

(i) % Employment agriculture

(ii) % Employment industry

2. Economic structure & growth

(a) GDP, current prices

(b) GDP, constant prices

(c) GDP per capita, current prices

(d) Composition of real GDP (%)

(i) Agriculture

(ii) Mining

(iii) Manufacturing

(iv) Construction

(v) Electricity, gas & water

(vi) Transportation & communication

(vii) Trade & finance

(viii) Public administration

(ix) Other services

(e) Investment, constant prices

(f) Investment, current prices

(g) Investment/GDP

(h) Net energy imports/total energy consumption (%)

3. Economic management

(a) Consumer price index

(b) Money supply-M1

(c) Money supply-M2

(d) Domestic credit

(e) Wage index

(f) Unemployment rate

(g) Budget deficit/GDP (%)

(h) Public expenditures/GDP (%)

4. Government finance

(a) Current revenues

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(b) Current expenditures

(c) Operating balance

(d) Net capital expenditures

(e) Budgetary balance

(f) Non-budgetary balance

(g) Domestic financing

(h) Foreign financing

5. External payments

(a) Exchange rate

(i) Local currency/USUSD

(ii) Local currency/SDR

(b) Imports/GDP (%)

(c) Composition of imports (%)

(i) Food

(ii) Non-food agricultural

(iii) Non-fuel mining & metals

(iv) Fuels

(v) Machinery & equipment

(vi) Other manufactured goods

(d) Composition of exports (%)

(i) Food

(ii) Non-food agricultural

(iii) Non-fuel mining & metals

(iv) Fuels

(v) Machinery & equipment

(vi) Other manufactured goods

(e) Balance of payments

(i) Exports

(ii) Imports

(iii) Trade balance

(iv) Net factor services (interest payments)

(v) Net transfers

(vi) Current account balance

(vii) Long-term capital flows

(1) Public

(2) Private

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(viii) Short-term capital flows

(1) Public

(2) Private

(ix) Errors and omissions

(x) Reserves movements

(xi) Current account balance/GDP (%)

(xii) Current account balance/exports (%)

(f) International reserves

(i) Central bank reserves, minus gold

(ii) Central bank gold reserves (millions of troy ounces)

(iii) Reserves, rest of banking system

(iv) Reserves/imports (%)

(v) Net foreign assets of banking system

(vi) Imports (%)

(g) External debt

(i) Long-term debt

(1) Public

(2) Private

(ii) Short-term debt

(1) Public

(2) Private

(iii) External debt/GDP (%)

(iv) Debt service payments a. Public b. Private

(v) Debt service payments/exports (%)

(vi) Debt service schedule

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