Certain Uncertainty

5Toward Uncertainty Ability: Leading Self and Others to Possibility Beyond the Unknown

Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr

In the December 2008 McKinsey Quarterly, authors Lowell Bryan and Diana Farrell¹ penned a wise treatment from the depths of a financial crisis that still holds insight for our current global landscape of steadily increasing uncertainty. Their sobering article gets it right from the first paragraphs—there is a paradoxical nature of uncertainty—that it is both the birthplace of “extraordinary opportunities” and of “impulsive, uncoordinated, and ultimately ineffective responses.” And while they offer a compelling triumvirate of skills for the effective navigation of uncertainty within organizations (more flexible, more aware, more resilient), they quickly finish their article by directing the responsibility at leaders: “The future will belong to companies whose senior executives remain calm.”

Far from being tongue in cheek, it's true. Leaders and organizations need to develop an ability to face uncertainty. Serial entrepreneur and CEO Sam Yagan agrees: “The single biggest predictor of executive success is how you deal with ambiguity.”² Panic, anxiety, and rumination are sure‐fire ways to derail effective navigation of any type of uncertainty but remaining calm isn't natural when facing the unknown. Humans are wired to avoid uncertainty at all costs. Numerous studies in the fields of evolutionary science, neuroscience, and psychology have shown that humans, ...