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China 2020 by Kerry Brown

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1

China in 2020: the leadership and the Party

Kate Westgarth1

To attempt to discuss how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Chinese leadership might look in 2020 seems courageous, if not foolhardy. After all, Western predictions about China’s future are notable for their inaccuracy. In the aftermath of the Tiananmen protests in 1989 there was a general consensus in the first place that the regime could not survive long, and, when that proved to be inaccurate, that the cost of perceived repression would be economic growth and modernisation. Western and Western-based Chinese pundits have been foretelling China’s imminent collapse for the 20-odd ensuing years – but, so far at least, the PRC has confounded them all. So, in a departure from ...

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