Climate Management Issues

403

14

The Clock Is Ticking: Changing for

the Benefit of Future Generations

Overview

This chapter looks at the future and how several leading scientists expect

the world to change under the inuence of increased climate change. It then

looks at the predicted winners and losers in the future as the earth continues

to heat up. In conclusion, it looks at what new technology is on the horizon

to help manage for a better tomorrow.

Introduction

Almost daily there is a news report reecting a climate change issue:

drought, oods, wildres, hurricanes, heat waves, melting glaciers, polar

bears starving, and multiple species of wildlife being threatened with

extinction. Although it is not possible to forecast exactly when, where,

and how severe warming’s impacts will be, there is enough evidence

available today to understand that many of the impacts from climate

change will be severe and will result in disasters with enormous eco-

nomic and human costs.

Each day corrective action is delayed puts life on earth at greater risk.

What is important to realize is the climate system’s inertia. Because it

responds slowly, positive action taken today will not be realized for decades

to come. In addition, the longer the delay, the greater the risks become and

the more difcult it will be to respond effectively. Even worse, if the delay

becomes too long, it may never be possible to stabilize the climate at a safe

level for life to exist as it presently does. Tipping points become a seri-

ous issue—when the system tips or shifts into an entirely new state, such

as the major collapse of ice sheets causing rapid sea-level rise or massive

thawing of permafrost releasing huge amounts of stored methane into the

atmosphere.

404 Climate Management Issues

Unfortunately, climate change has progressed enough that no amount of

cutting back on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will allow some ecosys-

tems to return to the way they once were. If emissions are cut back now on an

aggressive basis, scientists at National Aeronautics and Space Administration

(NASA) believe it is still possible to avoid the worst consequences of climate

change. Unlike the targeted 5 percent outlined in the Kyoto Protocol, the

European Union has said that it will actually require a reduction of 60–80

percent to prevent dangerous climate change (Hare, 2008).

On the positive side, scientists do understand what the world is up against

and are trying to educate the public to make the right choices, and the pub-

lic does seem to be responding (although slowly) to the green movement.

Solving the problem will take the concerted effort of everyone. There will

have to be change in the future design of buildings, transportation, energy

systems, leadership, innovation, and investments from governments and

businesses. Both public and individual commitments are critical in order to

achieve success.

Development

A Look toward the Future

Based on several emission scenarios run by the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC) and NASA, global temperature is projected to

increase by approximately 0.2°C per decade for the next two decades. Even if

GHGs were kept steady at 2000 levels, because of the inertia of the oceans—

the long time it takes them to store and release heat—there is already a sug-

gested warming in the pipeline of 0.1°C per decade.

If GHG emissions continue at the current rate, or become even greater, cli-

mate models suggest that changes in the global climate system during this

century will be even larger than those that were observed during the twenti-

eth century. Another critical factor, as mentioned previously, is the warmer it

gets, the less CO

2

the land and ocean are physically able to store. This means

that any increasing concentrations in CO

2

will remain in the atmosphere.

At this point, the IPCC projects that from now to 2090, the global average

surface air warming will most likely range from 1.1 to 6.4°C. The ranges are

attributed to the differences in the models and energy-use scenarios used.

Global average sea level is projected to rise by 18 to 59 centimeters by

2099. Scientists caution, however, that models do not include uncertainties

about some climate mechanisms because there is still a lack of knowledge.

For example, one of the key uncertainties is ice ow from Greenland and

Antarctica. There are still mechanisms that control the ow and dynamics

of the ice that scientists are trying to understand. If the speed of future ice