Time series decomposition

One of the problems that we have modeling the military time series is that there is simply not enough data to be able to produce a general model of the process that produced the series. A common way to model a time series is to decompose the series into a number of separate components:

  • Trend: Does the series generally increase or decrease over time? Is the trend an exponential curve as we saw with the population?
  • Seasonality: Does the series exhibit periodic rises and falls at a set number of intervals? For monthly data it is common to observe a period cycle of 12 months.
  • Cycles: Are there longer-term cycles in the dataset that span multiple seasons? For example, in financial data we might observe multi-year cycles corresponding ...

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