Chapter Seven Information Order Effects on Expert Judgment
Leonard Adelman Terry A. Bresnick Paul K. Black F. Freeman Marvin Steven G. Sak
This chapter reports on some experiments designed to investigate a belief-updating model developed by Einhorn and Hogarth (1987) and Hogarth and Einhorn (1992). The model predicts that when information is presented sequentially and a probability estimate is obtained after each piece of information, people will anchor on the current position and then adjust their belief on the basis of how strongly the new information confirms or disconfirms the current position. Moreover, they hypothesized that the larger the anchor, the greater the impact of the same piece of disconfirming information. Conversely, the ...
Get Cognitive Systems Engineering for User-computer Interface Design, Prototyping, and Evaluation now with the O’Reilly learning platform.
O’Reilly members experience books, live events, courses curated by job role, and more from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers.
