5

MEMORIES ARE SHORT

The Japan of 1999 was a country largely drained of its confidence.

Every year since 1957, the Bank of Japan (BOJ)—the country’s central bank—has carried out the quarterly Tankan survey to gauge corporate sentiment in the country. The Tankan is so highly regarded by Japanese companies that 99 percent of those surveyed send back a response to the confidential questionnaire. The most closely watched element of the survey is a Diffusion Index on the state of business that compares the number of positive viewpoints minus negative ones, so that a score of zero means that businesses overall have a neutral view of where the economy is heading.

The headline figure for major companies announced in December 1998 was negative 56. ...

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