Commodity Modeling and Pricing: Methods for Analyzing Resource Market Behavior

EPILOGUE

Conclusions and Perspective

Walter C. Labys

 

 

 

These conclusions attempt to elucidate the major findings of the chapters in this book and to provide a perspective for future problem solving and research. The authors’ contributions reflect the efforts of a group of the many doctoral students and colleagues with whom I have collaborated over the years. The quality of their research demonstrates their outstanding expertise and abilities. The subjects covered help close the gap on current and future economic problems surrounding commodity markets and constitute extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing and modeling the dynamic behavior of these markets and their interactions with the economy and the environment. Of significance is the balance they provide between theoretical and empirical research. The chapters presented here also reflect the research directions that I have taken during my career; I will say more about this later.

These chapters are grouped into four parts according to the issues they address. Part One analyzes the dynamic behavior of commodity prices in terms of their nonlinear chaotic and cyclical properties. This behavior is then considered in a multivariate context in terms of price comovements, business cycles, and other influencing variables. The latest time-series tests are presented and applied to the commodity price series of interest. In Part Two, commodity inventory adjustments are introduced to the price framework. ...