158
CORN ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
CORN CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE
Maize or corn, as it is more commonly called in the United States, is the world’s
most widely grown grain, with around 800 million tonnes being produced
worldwide in 2007, easily surpassing rice and wheat tonnage. The United States
produces nearly half of the annual global harvest; China is a distant second, but
rapidly gaining; and Brazil is third.
In the United States and many other parts of the world, one would find life
without corn difficult, as it has an extremely diverse ranges of uses. Corn is used as
a basic food staple, to manufacture plastic, and for nearly everything in between.
Most recently, growing demand from ethanol production and animal feed has
resulted in a tightening of supply and the growing concern of potential shortages.
Weather plays a significant role in corn production. Excess rain or cold weather
can delay planting, and once the corn is in the ground, drought can be a threat to the
harvest. The crop is most vulnerable to weather conditions in June and July in
North America. Prices tend to make seasonal lows in the fall at harvest, when there
is an abundance of supply, and then begin to rise steadily until spring planting begins.
–4
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25-Year Pattern
5-Year Pattern
Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009
CORN NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1970
HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR
YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE
1970 09/14 157 1/4 01/27 120 1/8 155 1/2 1991 04/23 263 1/4 07/08 219 1/2 251 1/2
1971 06/16 160 3/8 09/30 112 7/8 123 3/8 1992 03/09 278 3/4 10/28 205 216 1/2
1972 12/12 163 1/4 02/15 119 1/8 154 3/4 1993 12/30 306 02/08 211 3/4 306
1973 08/14 347 3/4 02/07 150 7/8 268 3/4 1994 01/13 310 10/10 213 3/4 231
1974 10/03 395 04/05 251 3/4 341 3/4 1995 12/29 369 1/4 01/03 228 1/2 369 1/4
1975 01/06 350 3/4 06/30 249 261 1/2 1996 05/17 504 1/2 12/30 258 1/4 258 1/4
1976 06/10 309 11/15 232 256 1/2 1997 04/01 313 07/07 229 1/4 265
1977 02/24 265 1/4 08/19 183 1/4 223 3/4 1998 03/11 282 08/31 199 1/2 213 1/2
1978 05/30 270 08/11 213 1/2 231 3/4 1999 03/22 232 1/4 07/13 186 204 1/2
1979 06/22 320 1/2 01/05 228 1/4 289 1/4 2000 05/03 250 3/4 08/11 174 3/4 231 3/4
1980 11/28 409 03/31 258 1/4 378 2001 07/12 234 1/4 06/21 188 1/4 209
1981 01/02 381 3/4 12/15 263 270 1/2 2002 09/11 292 1/2 04/15 196 235 3/4
1982 04/26 289 10/25 214 244 3/4 2003 05/15 255 3/4 07/23 205 1/2 246
1983 08/23 371 01/04 242 3/4 337 1/4 2004 04/02 330 1/2 11/11 197 1/4 204 3/4
1984 04/04 361 3/4 12/21 265 1/4 269 1/4 2005 07/18 260 11/18 191 1/4 215 3/4
1985 04/19 285 1/2 09/09 215 1/4 248 1/4 2006 11/30 390 1/2 01/19 205 390 1/4
1986 01/15 249 1/4 12/30 160 160 2007 12/31 455 1/2 07/23 310 455 1/2
1987 06/16 202 1/4 02/13 142 3/4 184 3/4 2008 06/26 768 1/4 12/05 309 1/4 407
1988 06/27 357 1/2 01/04 187 1/2 284 1/2 2009 06/02 449 1/2 09/04 306 1/4 414 1/2
1989 01/10 289 1/2 08/03 217 1/4 239 3/4 2010* 01/08 423 04/01 344 1/2
AT PRESS TIME
1990 06/12 292 1/4 11/21 220 1/2 231 3/4
*Through April 30, 2010
c02_CTA_2011_pgs_120-182_c02_CTA_2011_pgs_120-182 7/19/10 10:45 PM Page 158

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