182
BRITISH POUND ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
BRITISH POUND CYCLE, SEASONAL PATTERN, AND TRADING GUIDE
The British economy is driven by manufacturing, agricultural production, and
energy production from oil, coal, and natural gas, which is considered to account
for as much as 10% of Britain’s gross domestic production. In addition, London
is considered the world’s leading international financial service center.
Their economy runs on a fiscal year which begins in April. Since the pound
is valued against the U.S. dollar, we have a tendency to see bottoms in March,
as multi-conglomerate international companies make their fiscal year-end
adjustments. We see a major peak in December against the U.S. dollar, as money
flows back into the United States for year-end tax adjustment purposes, also
referred to as repatriation of funds.
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25-Year Pattern
5-Year Pattern
Based on near-term futures contract daily data 1985–2009
BRITISH POUND NEAR-TERM CONTRACT ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, AND CLOSES SINCE 1976
HIGH LOW YEAR HIGH LOW YEAR
YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE YEAR DATE CLOSE DATE CLOSE CLOSE
1976 02/26 202.40 10/28 154.05 166.40 1994 10/25 163.74 02/09 145.78 156.70
1977 12/30 191.95 01/03 166.95 191.95 1995 03/07 164.42 12/12 152.88 155.14
1978 10/30 209.75 05/19 180.05 204.10 1996 12/31 171.24 05/01 149.02 171.24
1979 07/24 231.75 02/02 197.20 220.15 1997 11/12 170.32 08/12 157.54 164.66
1980 10/23 244.55 04/03 213.55 241.85 1998 10/08 170.52 01/09 160.68 165.68
1981 01/20 244.40 09/25 177.35 190.40 1999 10/21 167.70 07/09 154.86 161.90
1982 01/04 193.20 11/24 158.65 162.95 2000 01/20 165.38 11/24 140.06 149.48
1983 01/03 162.80 12/13 141.95 146.25 2001 01/05 150.30 06/12 136.84 144.86
1984 02/28 148.85 12/31 115.40 115.40 2002 12/31 160.22 01/28 140.38 160.22
1985 11/29 148.85 02/25 105.00 143.90 2003 12/31 177.39 04/07 154.48 177.39
1986 04/28 154.90 02/04 136.65 147.20 2004 12/07 194.53 05/11 175.12 190.71
1987 12/31 188.25 01/07 145.75 188.25 2005 03/04 192.30 11/25 171.28 171.87
1988 04/18 189.65 09/22 165.38 179.92 2006 12/01 198.06 03/10 172.82 195.72
1989 01/03 180.98 06/14 149.26 158.88 2007 11/08 210.64 03/05 192.23 197.85
1990 11/27 197.30 03/21 156.88 190.94 2008 03/07 201.37 12/30 143.82 145.57
1991 02/06 198.90 07/02 158.58 184.48 2009 08/05 170.19 03/10 137.30 161.71
1992 09/02 199.96 12/28 147.96 149.86 2010* 01/19 163.55 03/24 148.83
AT PRESS TIME
1993 04/26 158.02 02/12 141.18 146.84
*Through April 30, 2010
c02_CTA_2011_pgs_120-182_c02_CTA_2011_pgs_120-182 7/19/10 10:45 PM Page 182

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